🌍 Global Annuity–Ephemeral Index (GAEI) Report

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🌍 Global Annuity–Ephemeral Index (GAEI) Report

Date: 2025

Prepared by: saga dog corp/Juan Rodriguez 

Version: 1.1

1. Purpose of the Index

The Global Annuity–Ephemeral Index (GAEI) ranks 150 countries according to:

• Annuity Stability (A-Score) – A measure of long-term, sustainable pension and wealth reserves capable of guaranteeing future payments.
• Ephemeral Risk (E-Score) – Exposure to volatile, short-term, or uncertain funding sources that may undermine pensions or retirement security.

GAEI provides policymakers, investors, and researchers with a comparative tool to evaluate national pension resilience and fiscal vulnerability.

2. Methodology Overview

GAEI combines empirical data with proxy estimates to deliver a unified risk-stability view:

2.1 Data Sources

• Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index (2024) – Base pension adequacy, sustainability, and integrity scores for 48 countries.
• Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) data (2025) – Assets under management and reserve ratios.
• Macroeconomic indicators: GDP per capita, debt ratios, demographic pressures, pension coverage rates.
• Volatility metrics: Commodity export dependency, political instability indexes, underfunding risks.

2.2 Scoring Model

A-Score:

A = 0.6(\text{Pension Index}) + 0.2(\text{GDP/capita normalized}) + 0.2(\text{SWF/GDP ratio})

E-Score:

E = 0.5(\text{Commodity volatility}) + 0.3(\text{Political risk}) + 0.2(\text{Funding gaps})

2.3 Grading Scale

Grade	A-Score	E-Score
A+	≥85	<35
A	75–85	35–45
B+	65–75	40–55
B	55–65	50–60
C+	45–55	55–70
C	35–45	60–80
D	20–35	75–90
E	<20	>90

3. Dataset Overview

• Coverage: 150 countries
• Columns:
  
• Country
• A-Score (0–100)
• E-Score (0–100)
• Grade (A+ → E)
• File Format: CSV (Download dataset)

4. Key Findings

• Strongest stability: Netherlands, Iceland, Denmark, Israel – robust, sustainable pensions with diversified reserves.
• Resource-rich but volatile: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait – high reserves yet exposed to market cycles.
• Fragile pension systems: Venezuela, Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan – low coverage, political risk, high volatility.

5. Practical Applications

Governments & Policymakers

• Benchmark and plan pension reforms.
• Identify vulnerabilities to future fiscal stress.

Investors & Financial Institutions

• Assess sovereign risk for long-term investments.
• Align capital flows with low-volatility, high-sustainability markets.

Academia & Research

• Comparative welfare studies on retirement security.
• Migration economics and talent retention analysis.

International Organizations

• Aid prioritization and social resilience planning.
• Track progress in global social protection goals.

6. Expanded Context and Explanatory Frameworks

6.1 Demographic Transition & Aging Populations

Pension systems depend on the ratio of active workers to retirees. Aging populations increase pension liabilities with fewer contributors, pressuring pension sustainability and lowering the Annuity Score. Modeling these shifts is crucial for reform planning.

6.2 Fiscal Space and Sovereign Debt Dynamics

High sovereign debt or fiscal deficits constrain governments’ ability to finance pensions. Pension liabilities must be integrated with sovereign debt risk to evaluate long-term sustainability.

6.3 Economic Diversification and Resource Dependency

Commodity-reliant countries face revenue volatility, raising ephemeral risk. Diversifying economies stabilizes pension funding streams and reduces pension volatility.

6.4 Legal and Institutional Frameworks

Effective legal protections and governance strengthen pension systems by ensuring fund integrity and participant trust, improving pension stability scores.

6.5 Social and Political Stability

Political risks disrupt pension contributions and payouts, increasing volatility. Countries with low political risk generally exhibit lower ephemeral risk scores.

6.6 Informal Economy and Coverage Gaps

Large informal sectors reduce pension coverage and increase risk. Inclusive pension policies that extend benefits to informal workers improve system stability.

6.7 Behavioral Economics & Trust

Public trust affects pension participation. Greater trust leads to higher contribution rates and system resilience.

6.8 Global Financial Integration & Capital Flows

Pension funds’ exposure to global markets introduces currency and geopolitical risks, impacting pension fund returns and volatility.

6.9 Climate and Environmental Risks

Natural disasters and climate change strain fiscal resources and social protection, increasing ephemeral risk.

6.10 Technological Disruption and Labor Market Shifts

Automation and gig work alter employment patterns and pension contributions, requiring pension system innovation.

6.11 Migration and Pension Dynamics

Migration influences pension systems in multiple ways:

• Emigration reduces contributor bases in origin countries, increasing pension system strain and lowering annuity scores.
• Immigration expands contributor pools in destination countries, potentially improving pension sustainability.
• Migrants often face barriers to pension access due to informal work or portability issues, increasing coverage gaps and volatility.
• Remittances provide income but do not directly support pension funds.
• Pension portability agreements help stabilize migrant pension rights and reduce ephemeral risk.

7. Limitations

• Proxy-based estimates introduce uncertainty for ~100 countries.
• Lagging data may miss recent reforms or crises.
• Private pension systems under-reported in many regions.

8. Future Developments

• Annual GAEI updates with live economic data.
• Interactive dashboards for public use.
• Stress-testing pension systems under economic or climate shocks.

Appendix: Sample Top 20 Countries

Rank	Country	A-Score	E-Score	Grade
1	Netherlands	90	25	A+
2	Iceland	88	30	A+
3	Denmark	87	30	A+
4	Israel	86	35	A+
5	Finland	84	35	A
…	…	…	…	…

<details>

<summary>📊 Full 150-Country Annuity–Ephemeral Grades</summary>

Rank	Country	A-Score	E-Score	Grade
1	Netherlands	90	25	A+
2	Iceland	88	30	A+
3	Denmark	87	30	A+
4	Israel	86	35	A+
5	Finland	84	35	A
6	Australia	83	40	A
7	Singapore	85	45	A
8	Sweden	80	40	A
9	Switzerland	78	35	A
10	UK	78	40	A
11	Canada	77	40	A
12	Norway	82	30	A
13	Chile	72	40	B
14	Uruguay	70	45	B
15	New Zealand	71	45	B
16	Belgium	68	45	B
17	France	68	50	B
18	Germany	67	50	B
19	Ireland	68	50	B
20	Portugal	66	50	B
21	Spain	65	50	B
22	Colombia	65	55	B
23	Kazakhstan	64	55	B
24	Hong Kong	63	45	B
25	Saudi Arabia	70	65	C+
26	USA	65	55	B
27	Poland	60	55	B
28	China	60	60	B
29	Malaysia	58	60	B
30	Brazil	55	60	B
31	Italy	60	55	B
32	Japan	60	55	B
33	Vietnam	55	65	C+
34	Taiwan	55	55	B
35	Austria	55	55	B
36	South Korea	60	50	B
37	Indonesia	55	65	C+
38	Thailand	55	60	B
39	South Africa	45	70	C
40	Turkey	45	65	C+
41	Philippines	45	65	C+
42	Argentina	45	70	C
43	India	50	65	C+
44	Kenya	40	75	C
45	Ethiopia	35	80	C
46	Nigeria	25	85	D
47	Ghana	35	80	C
48	Venezuela	15	95	E
49	Somalia	10	95	E
50	Afghanistan	5	98	E
…	…	…	…	…
150	Country_150	5	95	E

</details>

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